Golod sees stronger possibility for a double-dip

Golod, whose opinion caused me to sell in 2007 and get back in in 2009, see earlier posts) sees a higher probability
for a double -dip - read his post
https://www.invesco.com/pdf/MKTDDD-COM-1-E.pdf?contentGuid=ba07804562ea1310VgnVCM1000000a67bf0aRCRD

Additionally today, Sunday, World Bank Chief Warns of New Danger Zone for Markets

The loss of market confidence in economic leadership in key countries like the United States and Europe coupled with a fragile economic recovery have pushed markets into a new danger  zone, something that policymakers have to take seriously, the head of the World Bank said. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44136602

Sold my entire Apple position between 384-389 and had some dumb luck day trading over the past ten days.

Hate the risks in this market ! Sold the last on my short term trading position in the aftermarket on Friday at 377.15.

Except for a small position in Qualcom (qcom) , i moved into cash 100%

Will keep you posted.

Apple bit again

Garden of Eden

Ok so I bit

Bot some Apple at 245.17 before the long July 4th weekend - crazy yup -
I hope crazy like a fox though?

mucho dinero poco trabajo

Yes - Apple is exceeding all sales projections with most if not all
its product suite.

Yes - Earnings are going to blow out all estimates.

Yes - the stock is hitting new highs daily on heavy volume .

And - Market looks very shaky and liquidity is still key.

So I sold out my position today at $271.26.

And then the fight began

Been lucky and fortunate to heed the advice from Richard Golod on 9/09 when he turned positive on the market (see my blog entry dated 9/27/09).

Continue to maintain a long term position in Apple and Google, buying on dips – (bought more Apple today)

60% in cash - Yup remaining liquid - $ n US Treasury money market funds spread across several fund families. (yeah 15 basis points is disgusting - better than a 3% yield on dividend stocks which can get hit another 15%)

High end real estate getting cheaper- a 9,000 + square ft showcase builder house by Pruett which was listed for over $4M last year was just “dumped” by a bank for $1.5M! - $150 square ft on 3/4 acre prime lot in the Concession!

As my dear friend advised me in 1989 (after his friendly bankers called his loans on all his credit lines on which he was current),

"Never, never will I allow my self to be in a position where I can't write a check and pay off ALL my loans!"


In the film industry, they call that “F” You money. Stay liquid and enjoy life!

A well-respected advisor turns positive!

Rich Golod, whose great advice in late 2007 (kept me out
of the market since Oct 30, 2007), has turned positive.

His latest commentary is a must read.

http://www.vankampen.com/VKContent/Public/Resources/Public/Commentary/Golod0909.pdf

Quieromasdinero

Tax nightmare- Article from Forbes- July 13, 2009

Definitely worth the read. http://www.forbes.com/global/2009/0713/business-mandates-corporate-recovery-robbers.html?partner=email

Have to do some serious tax planning protecting your assets from the coming tax tsunami!!!

Keep an eye open for a possible increase in the tax loss carry forward allowance from $3K year to $20K a year and try to match profitable asset sales against any tax loss carry forwards.

Additionally, if you do have a sizeable tax loss carry forward - match it against the sale of any appreciated assets you may own.

And this may sound crazy - you can sell appreciated real estate to yourself, pay the 15% cap gains tax, and raise the cost basis to current market value. This will allow you to save an additional 33% tax (from 15% to 20%) on the soon to be 20% cap gains rate.